Managing Concurrent and Repeated Risks: Explaining the Reductions in Opium Production in Central Helmand Between 2008 and 2011

NOTE: This is a large file (28 mb). Using satellite imagery and on-the-ground research to track cropping patterns over several years, this report explores opium poppy cultivation in Helmand: what has driven recent reductions and how sustainable are they? It finds that while household concerns about food security because of high wheat prices drove down poppy cultivation between 2008 and 2009, the coercive power of the Afghan state and international military forces has been significant in determining levels of cultivation in central Helmand in 2010 and 2011. Sustainability of these effects will vary among different communities, depending on factors such as their security, access to markets, and agricultural potential.